As I’m weary of Congress and the President accepting late (or no) budgets as the new normal, I’m not motivated to do much analysis of either the President’s fiscal year 2012 budget request, or the hash that is the attempt to pass something to cover the last half of funding for fiscal year 2011. So if you wish to peruse the numbers, I’d look at AAAS and the American Institute of Physics (seek entries prefaced with the proper fiscal year). I’d also recommend that you keep a close eye on the column headings. Not just to distinguish between this year and next, but in order to keep a better sense of the magnitude of increases and decreases. Between the stimulus spending and the differences between requests and actual spending over the last few years, trend numbers are likely to look lumpy and weird.
The current funding resolution (which keeps most everything at the spending levels of the previous year) is set to expire on March 4, and I don’t expect resolution to come in time. I also expect there won’t be a government shutdown. I make that expectation based on the general un-seriousness with which most everyone is tangling with budget cuts. With a focus on only one-sixth (approximately) of the federal budget, this strikes me as more posturing.
The nutshell is as follows – deep cuts in that one-sixth of the budget are proposed by the House for the rest of this fiscal year. This includes essentially derailing the doubling proposed for research investments in the physical sciences, a doubling set by President George W. Bush. The current President’s current budget request, while making cuts, seeks to preserve this doubling and pay for continued investments through cuts in other areas. This is consistent with the approach taken for his budget request for fiscal year 2011, where an overall cut in discretionary spending did not result in a cut to federal research and development funding.
But, if my budgetary skepticism has any predictive power, there won’t be a budget passed on time this year, either, so trying to keep straight the numbers for this year and next year resembles the work of Sisyphus. Those seeking to support federal funding of science and technology research will need to step up their game, something that’s been true for a while, but now they’ll need an additional step.