Given how much I’ve written about what I consider the questionable pursuit of earthquake prediction, some of the latest news in Science magazine reminds me that I am not an expert. In the latest issue (July 12) there’s an article making the claim that certain areas are susceptible to earthquakes under certain conditions.
According to the researchers, in areas where there has been seismic activity following human activity, there is an increased likelihood of further quakes. Much like the initial activity, the subsequent activity would be the result of some triggering event. In this case that would be seismic waves from large, remote earthquakes.
Researchers found that increased sensitivity to subsequent seismic activity occurred more often in areas where a long time passed between the human impetus and the induced seismic activity. Areas that showed moderate magnitude earthquakes within 6 to 20 months of the induced activity (usually hydraulic injection) also had a higher incidence of seismic sensitivity.
I suppose it is still a bit of a stretch to suggest these findings indicate predictive power for earthquakes. But it seems reasonable to be more alert following human-induced quakes in the event of large distant quakes. And I would not have expected that to be possible not that long ago.
Pasco Phronesis 