How the Economic Downturn May Affect Publishing

As various states try and manage the current economic downturn, various places have taken it on the chin, repeatedly.  One of them is the California higher education system.  With furloughs and reductions in services, both California university systems have suffered.  But the California Digital Library (CDL), which manages journal subscriptions for the University of California system, has been hit with a doozy.

Apparently the Nature Publishing Group (NPG) has been cutting the UC system a deal for subscriptions – a deal that they are not willing to continue.  As a result, average subscriptions to the journals in that family will increase fourfold over what they are currently paying.  The Digital Library is not interested in paying that much more (it may simply not have the money), and is suggesting a boycott.  This boycott is not only of subscribing to the journals, but of submitting UC faculty work to those journals or having UC faculty participate in the various reviews and other editorial tasks that help journals function.  If UC faculty are willing to participate (and Dr. Free-Ride has a great point, these faculty should not be punished in tenure decisions if they participate), this would hit NPG harder than the loss of $24.3 million in annual license fees.

The negotiations continue via press releases.  Independent of the claims both sides are making, this fight brings out the point that journal subscription rates have continually increased at rates that challenge many universities to keep up.  NPG is not the only company charging high rates, it’s just that the long-standing agreement with the CDL has become no longer sustainable for NPG.  Given the continuing budget problems California faces, it seems quite likely that the CDL may no longer find NPG subscriptions sustainable.  Unfortunately, a loss of $23.4 million per year won’t be enough to force action.  NPG is not the only one charging high rates, but this issue was more likely forced by budget constraints than by an effort to somehow destroy academic publishing.  Will the CDL target other publishers?  I don’t think so, barring similar dramatic price increases.  Will other universities suggest a boycott?  Not likely, unless there’s some other system with the pull of the University of California (10 campuses, over 220,000 students and 170,000 faculty) willing to rumble.