By the best estimates of people at the World Health Organization (WHO), we are at least six months, and probably nine, away from successfully containing the current outbreak of Ebola (the largest outbreak ever recorded).
At least that’s the goal.
The agency released a roadmap in late August to outline the necessary response to the disease. There have already been over 3,500 reported cases, and the death toll is approaching 2,000 (or has surpassed it, depending on your source), making this outbreak larger than any previous recorded outbreak combined). The estimates within the roadmap are sobering, with the possibility of over 20,000 people suffering from the virus. By the end of September the WHO will do all it can to establish full coverage of Ebola response activities in the affected countries.
The United States will contribute to the effort. More than 100 experts, and $100 million, have been committed to the region, with more money and personnel expected. The U.S. military will be involved, according to an interview with President Obama broadcast over the weekend. This re-emphasizes the severity of the problem, in part because Doctors Without Borders typically eschews military involvement in outbreak responses. But the organization is stretched too thin to turn down such help. With much of the outbreak area emerging from civil war, infrastructure and institutions are either broken or strained close to breaking. Perhaps this lack of capacity has contributed to the spread of the outbreak. If this is true (and we simply don’t know), addition resources applied to the region in a systematic fashion should help contain and better understand this outbreak before the virus has an opportunity to mutate.
While I’m certain that the U.S. public health infrastructure is in better shape than it’s West African counterparts, this crisis has made me mindful that maintaining such infrastructure involves constant investment and participation. Without the facilities, regular training, and meaningful information provided by patients using those facilities, it becomes much harder to track diseases and be in a better position to contain or anticipate outbreaks. In other words, for the grace of preparation go us.